Today I received the slides from the talk on West Virginia Temperature Regimes given at the Southern Syrup Research Symposium. I attended the talk, and found it very engaging. Tonight I posted the slides on the Research page under “Resources” (enjoy!). I also gave my synopsis of it in my earlier blog “Rookie’s Take on the Southern Syrup Research Symposium”.
Upon receiving the slides and being able to remind myself more about which 5 locations the speaker (Jeff) chose for more detailed study, I started trying to figure out which area my farm in Gilmer County (Tanner) most mimics. I originally assumed it would be Charleston. But I know we had more freeze-thaw events after February 26th this year than what was reported. Romney looks more like what I saw, and it is a similar elevation, but it is east of the mountains. My sugarbush is at about 800-850 feet in elevation. In looking at the current 10 day forecast Charleston is actually a little cooler than Glenville and Romney is actually a little warmer. But that has little to do with long-term average temperatures. We just had a hurricane which blew from the Gulf of Mexico, up through southwestern Virginia before heading back to the eastern coast.
I don’t live in Gilmer County year round, but what I do know is that almost every morning in the summer it is foggy because of the orographic uplift. The weather comes mostly from the west so because of the same uplift, our storms are intensified. On the eastern side of the mountains, where Romney is, there is a rain shadow so they are somewhat drier. But, Charleston also experiences the same orographic thing. However, I gather these uplift patterns can be narrow, in bands like lake-effect snow, so maybe last year, Charleston didn’t get that particular freeze. Charleston is as much south of us laterally as Romney is north of us. This is an interesting late night/early morning read:
I could not figure out how to use the SC-ACIS tool Jeff used. Perhaps you need a special account, so I pulled up the US Climate data, and it is interesting. Glenville (closest town to Tanner with weather data and about 75 feet below Tanner in elevation) and Charleston have very similar high temperatures, within a degree or two. But the lows vary. Charleston lows average above freezing in March whereas Glenville lows average below freezing in March. Is that because Charleston is a big city and the roadways keep it warmer at night? Or is it that Charleston is on the Big Kanawha River and Glenville is only on the Little Kanawha? Glenville is huddled in, yes, a Glen, as is Tanner. By my estimation (and I have ridden my bike in Charleston), Tanner will get less sunlight because of the “benches and breaks” topography it sits down in. So I reckon Tanner to be colder than Charleston at early morning because night lasts longer. That sounds favorable for Tanner for syrup.
So herein lies a question. Charleston was picked as a region because there is weather data for it. I can’t find another town near it on the US Climate Data website. How close are maple farms to Charleston? Because if it is that the low temperature is not as low because of all the concrete sucking up that sun, then the freeze-thaw events for an actual maple farm in that region may not be accurate.
In comparison with Romney, Romney looks to have slightly higher highs than Glenville, but slightly lower lows. I guess the highs might have to do with being on the other side of the mountains. Romney looks like a better estimate to compare Glenville to as far as the talk slides go. Wheeling’s lows look very similar to Glenville, but the highs look a little lower as we might expect because it is farther north.
But using the US Climate Data can I get my own list of freeze-thaw events for Glenville? Yes I can! So why am I doing all this work? Because it is 1:34 AM and my wheels are spinning. 🙂 In 2018 in March, Glenville had freeze-thaw events from March 1 to March 27 except for March 7. I’m not sure of the thresholds Jeff used. If thaw had to be 40 or above then there were several days that only got to 39, some only has high as 34. Brr it was a cold March! But I bet the sap was running well! I stopped on March 4, which was my best take. There is no data on February 28 which is a shame. I think that was the day the Nor’easter blew through and washed the gullies.
Weirdly, the US Climate Data site I’m looking at does not have data for 2018 for Davis, so I can’t compare what Jeff had. Elkins looks close – there were some freeze-freeze days in March for Elkins so it wasn’t all freeze-thaw.
I’m focusing on March because, as I said in my earlier blog, I want to wait as late as I can, when the 15 day forecast shows a lot of freeze-thaw events before I travel from Maryland to Tanner for my tree-tapping. This is because I, well, I’m a chicken. I’m originally from Newport News Va, flat as a pancake with very little snow. And when it did snow the city was paralyzed because there were no snow plows. So there was no learning to drive in snow down there. I’ve lived in Maryland over 30 years and while we do get snow, it’s not enough to get comfortable with, and I had a traumatic event where, though I was driving perfectly fine, someone else lost control and smashed into me. So, basically, I want a snow-free day to travel to Tanner. I need my Tanner driveway to also be clear of snow and ice as I don’t have anyone out there to plow it for me. I want a mostly-snow-free 3 week period to be out there. Now, I can deal with a little snow-in, as long as I bring supplies, but I’m not going anywhere till my hill thaws once I’m up there. (Another traumatic event, getting stuck in the snow on the driveway curve when I had to come up to see my Dad when he lived there.)
So there we have it. This topic interests me because of my travel concerns. If I try to tap in January, I risk blizzards or snow squalls on travel days (my parent’s traumatic event – going off the road in a sudden storm in Western Maryland after a trip to see me). In 2018 I was lucky for my first sugaring attempt – I only tapped for one week but I could have stayed for 2 or 3 more weeks as long as the trees didn’t bud out. In looking at historical data, 2017 would have been good, but 2016, not so much. We’ll see what 2019 brings.